Used methodology has been worked out based on world practices of conducting monthly conjuncture online surveys of top-managers/business owners about current state of their companies (including seasonal changes) and expected changes for the next 3 months.
Calculation of the Entrepreneur Confidence Index
Index is calculated by using “balances” and represents a mean of “balances” of replies to the questions.
“Balance” is understood as the difference between fractions of respondents who indicated “increase” and “decrease” of index as compared to preceding period.
“Balances” are an integrated expression of opinions of respondents about level and dynamics of entrepreneurship confidence index.
- Demand (number of calls/requests) per month as compared to preceding month
Replies: better, at the same level, worse
- Sales (shipments) per month
Replies: more than planned, as planned, less than planned
- Stock of the finished products:
Replies: increased, remain as planned, decreased
- Production plans for nearest 3 months
Replies: increase, as forecasted, decrease
- Number of employees in the company
Replies: increased, at the same level, decreased
Method of entrepreneur confidence index calculation
Index is calculated as a sum of balances (differences in replies) of five questions from monthly survey:
- Changes in demand: balance = number of replies “better” – number of replies “worse”
- Changes in sales: balance = number of replies “more than planned” – number of replies “less than planned”
- Evaluation of storage remains: balance = number of replies “increased” – number of replies “decreased”
- Evaluation of production plans: balance = number of replies “increase” – number of replies “decrease”
- Evaluation of number of employees in the company: balance = number of replies “increased” – number of replies “decreased”
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